
Volume
$45K
Txns
1,363
Traders
298
Fees
$2
Liquidity
$9,733
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 100% tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h | Jjw | No / 97.5¢ | +100.00 | $97.6 | |
| 13h | BSS37 | Yes / 2.5¢ | +100.00 | $2.5 | |
| 1d | dlflr | No / 96.7¢ | +27.88 | $27 | |
| 1d | Bubbasawn | Yes / 2.6¢ | +72.88 | $1.98 | |
| 1d | tobolg | No / 97.8¢ | +45.00 | $44 | |
| 2d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 3.0¢ | -48.00 | $1.44 | |
| 2d | dlflr | No / 96.7¢ | +7.91 | $7.65 | |
| 2d | lightinthewoods | No / 96.8¢ | +29.00 | $28.1 | |
| 2d | QMG-CORE | No / 96.9¢ | +467.61 | $453 | |
| 2d | footballcannon | No / 96.8¢ | +50.00 | $48.4 | |
| 2d | 0x45e0543fEb1CE23c43222d3478FE1dbd2fcbc059-1778266048202 | Yes / 3.1¢ | +653.52 | $20.8 | |
| 2d | valewrf | No / 97.5¢ | +51.00 | $49.7 | |
| 4d | asdasasdsaasd | No / 97.9¢ | +1.02 | $1 | |
| 4d | dlflr | No / 97.9¢ | -1.02 | $1 | |
| 4d | 0xA36D5C089D7dc73F671c8Ca96ED83eC67f5E3654-1772745083995 | Yes / 2.2¢ | +1.06 | $0.02 | |
| 4d | robotictrader | No / 97.8¢ | +1.06 | $1.04 | |
| 4d | grassminefield | No / 97.0¢ | -50.00 | $48.5 | |
| 4d | iusedtowritepoetryforaliving | No / 97.0¢ | +50.00 | $48.6 | |
| 5d | QMG-CORE | No / 96.9¢ | +30.38 | $29.4 | |
| 5d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 96.8¢ | -30.38 | $29.4 | |
| 5d | 0xb635...edf526 | No / 95.8¢ | -2.01 | $1.93 | |
| 5d | QMG-CORE | No / 96.9¢ | +2.01 | $1.95 | |
| 6d | lightinthewoods | No / 96.9¢ | -20.94 | $20.3 | |
| 6d | Jjw | No / 96.9¢ | +32.04 | $31.1 | |
| 6d | nirvaNAAA | No / 96.9¢ | -11.10 | $10.8 |
1–25
Will Alberta join the US?
No 96%$112Kvolume
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Yes 55%$416Kvolume
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
No 92%$78.6Kvolume
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
No 100%$4.6Kvolume
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
Yes 77%$53.8Kvolume
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
No 77%$11.6Kvolume