
Volume
$3M
Txns
9,324
Traders
1,472
Fees
$0
Ends
Jul 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior July when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for July 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for July, and if 2024 July is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes." Note: If 2024 July is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2024 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 0.1¢ | -133.95 | $0.13 | |
| 1y | polyprediction | Yes / 99.9¢ | -133.95 | $134 | |
| 1y | bevi | Yes / 99.9¢ | -21.95 | $21.9 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 0.1¢ | -21.95 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -18,470.43 | $18.5 | |
| 1y | Dr.ChristmasJones | Yes / 99.9¢ | -28,143.22 | $28.1K | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 0.1¢ | -9,672.79 | $9.67 | |
| 1y | Slaylorswift | Yes / 99.9¢ | -69.99 | $69.9 | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -69.99 | $0.07 | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -8,500.02 | $8.5 | |
| 1y | 0x-JayBee | Yes / 99.9¢ | -8,500.02 | $8.49K | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -805.72 | $0.81 | |
| 1y | MalikNabers | Yes / 99.9¢ | -805.72 | $805 | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | Erfthg | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | AlienB | Yes / 99.9¢ | -441.17 | $441 | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -441.17 | $0.44 | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -45.30 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | Gdubb47 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -45.30 | $45.3 | |
| 1y | pman | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | cacho | No / 0.1¢ | -37.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | AliceBob | No / 0.1¢ | -958.00 | $0.96 | |
| 1y | RunBadCapital | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | aviato | No / 0.1¢ | -301.11 | $0.3 | |
| 1y | FOMOs-retardoo | No / 0.1¢ | -497.25 | $0.5 |
1–25
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 62%$325Kvolume
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 96%$382Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 79%$8.55Kvolume
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Yes 87%$139Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
Yes 64%$8.39Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?
No 97%$9.11Kvolume