
Volume
$140K
Txns
1,523
Traders
199
Fees
$0
Ends
Aug 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2024 shows an increase of between 1.15°C (inclusive) and 1.19°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.15°C (inclusive) and 1.19°C (inclusive) August 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for August 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2024 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | lakedro | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | similateidlxp | Yes / 0.1¢ | +126.00 | $0.13 | |
| 1y | seto | Yes / 0.2¢ | +1,000.00 | $2 | |
| 1y | ooll22 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +9.82 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | carp | No / 99.8¢ | +1,504.82 | $1.5K | |
| 1y | carolinagalvao | Yes / 0.1¢ | +137.00 | $0.14 | |
| 1y | enrikafossetdy | Yes / 0.1¢ | +119.00 | $0.12 | |
| 1y | AlAz | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | isomeridekathwb | Yes / 0.1¢ | +103.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | PaeniscusBit | No / 99.8¢ | +90.18 | $90 | |
| 1y | ooll22 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +90.18 | $0.18 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 0.7¢ | +5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | Yes / 0.7¢ | -5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | Yes / 0.7¢ | -5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 0.7¢ | +5.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 1.2¢ | -100.00 | $1.2 | |
| 1y | matp | Yes / 1.2¢ | +100.00 | $1.2 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | Yes / 0.6¢ | -5.00 | $0.03 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 0.6¢ | +5.00 | $0.03 | |
| 1y | Wojtek | Yes / 1.5¢ | -252.00 | $3.78 | |
| 1y | Bombaman | Yes / 1.5¢ | +302.00 | $4.38 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 1.2¢ | -50.00 | $0.6 |
1–25
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 61%$326Kvolume
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 94%$383Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?
No 99%$9.87Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
No 99%$63.7Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 69%$385Kvolume
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
No 98%$357Kvolume