Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah or Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Cyprus’s ground territory by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces or any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact Cyprus’s ground territory. Cyprus’s ground territory refers to (i) all land on the island of Cyprus, including territory under the de facto control of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, UN buffer zones, and military bases under the sovereign control of other nations, and (ii) all land internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Cyprus, including all territory under de facto Republic of Cyprus administration as of March 2, 2026. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Cyprus’s soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.