Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
ActiveVolume
$555K
Txns
7,955
Traders
1,326
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$10,925
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Volume
$555K
Txns
7,955
Traders
1,326
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$10,925
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | Aleksei-Ivanovich | Yes / 61.0¢ | +8.06 | $4.92 | |
| 1m | 0x81A4f23d405a2f93899F6F7340AbaC0C5507D93D-1778695161113 | Yes / 61.0¢ | -8.06 | $4.92 | |
| 2h | maxosta90 | No / 39.0¢ | +12.82 | $5 | |
| 2h | Aleksei-Ivanovich | Yes / 61.0¢ | +12.82 | $7.82 | |
| 8h | Troy168 | Yes / 61.0¢ | -16.00 | $9.76 | |
| 8h | Aleksei-Ivanovich | Yes / 61.0¢ | +16.00 | $9.76 | |
| 11h | Colala | Yes / 62.0¢ | -1.49 | $0.92 | |
| 11h | parsa222 | No / 38.0¢ | -1.49 | $0.57 | |
| 15h | Colala | Yes / 62.0¢ | -6.29 | $3.9 | |
| 15h | 0xa30728c3EA0e5cE7668236Da24A6E1D0d44Bcf74-1768862039951 | Yes / 61.4¢ | +16.29 | $10 | |
| 15h | thew | No / 39.0¢ | +10.00 | $3.9 | |
| 17h | 0x81A4f23d405a2f93899F6F7340AbaC0C5507D93D-1778695161113 | Yes / 62.0¢ | +8.06 | $5 | |
| 17h | planktonXD | No / 38.0¢ | +8.06 | $3.06 | |
| 19h | 16r0ob | Yes / 61.0¢ | -6.64 | $4.05 | |
| 19h | carstonsean | Yes / 61.6¢ | +16.24 | $10 | |
| 19h | planktonXD | No / 38.0¢ | +1.14 | $0.43 | |
| 19h | 16r0ob | Yes / 62.0¢ | -8.46 | $5.25 | |
| 20h | Ersicolus | No / 40.0¢ | -25.99 | $10.4 | |
| 20h | 16r0ob | Yes / 60.0¢ | +7.32 | $4.39 | |
| 20h | 16r0ob | Yes / 60.0¢ | +7.78 | $4.67 | |
| 20h | HelloWorld2024 | No / 40.0¢ | +141.09 | $56.4 | |
| 20h | Te0n2 | Yes / 60.0¢ | +100.00 | $60 | |
| 23h | Ersicolus | No / 40.0¢ | -2.50 | $1 | |
| 23h | 0xED7EfB7B6E172D8982DBfce8C817569489C080FF-1771093925108 | No / 40.0¢ | +2.50 | $1 | |
| 1d | Ersicolus | No / 40.0¢ | -5.00 | $2 |
1–25
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
No 95%$2.65Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
No 81%$26.9Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
No 95%$1.52Mvolume
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
No 99%$24.8Mvolume
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
No 81%$1.95Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
No 61%$10.6Mvolume