Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by February 28, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Afghanistan or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a Pakistani missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.