Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
ActiveVolume
$6K
Txns
367
Traders
81
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$2,665
Ends
Volume
$6K
Txns
367
Traders
81
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$2,665
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 0xFBI | Yes / 11.0¢ | +100.00 | $11.4 | |
| 1d | Oklmntrader | Yes / 11.0¢ | -100.00 | $11 | |
| 1d | ultralisk | Yes / 10.0¢ | +20.00 | $2 | |
| 1d | nani | Yes / 9.6¢ | -36.71 | $3.54 | |
| 1d | FFFF0857LP | Yes / 10.0¢ | +16.71 | $1.67 | |
| 1d | 0x35bC4A415A5c89c7830D49c4873505be646EA8CC-1770175190660 | Yes / 9.6¢ | -56.71 | $5.47 | |
| 1d | nani | Yes / 10.0¢ | +36.71 | $3.67 | |
| 1d | thecaricature | Yes / 10.0¢ | +20.00 | $2 | |
| 11d | AiBird | Yes / 10.0¢ | +50.00 | $5 | |
| 11d | rebate8784 | No / 90.0¢ | +50.00 | $45.2 | |
| 15d | AiBird | Yes / 10.0¢ | +20.00 | $2 | |
| 15d | zaocan | Yes / 9.6¢ | -20.00 | $1.93 | |
| 15d | UssTrippingHigh | No / 90.3¢ | +11.73 | $10.6 | |
| 15d | AiBird | Yes / 10.0¢ | +11.77 | $1.18 | |
| 19d | lihood91211 | No / 88.6¢ | -50.00 | $44.3 | |
| 19d | Oklmntrader | Yes / 11.0¢ | -50.00 | $5.5 | |
| 19d | X-Rabbit.Sezu | No / 88.6¢ | -20.00 | $17.7 | |
| 19d | Oklmntrader | Yes / 11.0¢ | -20.00 | $2.2 | |
| 19d | AiBird | Yes / 10.0¢ | +39.99 | $4 | |
| 19d | dodoherty | Yes / 9.6¢ | -39.99 | $3.86 | |
| 19d | Oklmntrader | Yes / 11.0¢ | -40.00 | $4.4 | |
| 19d | predictdogepepewif | No / 88.6¢ | -40.00 | $35.4 | |
| 20d | thecaricature | No / 90.0¢ | +20.00 | $18 | |
| 20d | Elias.Thornwell | No / 91.0¢ | +15.99 | $14.6 | |
| 20d | predictdogepepewif | No / 90.0¢ | +40.00 | $36 |
1–25
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
No 99%$393Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 98%$1.04Mvolume
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Yes 72%$518Kvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
No 83%$70.8Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 74%$909Kvolume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 89%$1.44Mvolume