Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
ActiveVolume
$15K
Txns
880
Traders
183
Fees
$33
Liquidity
$1,986
Volume
$15K
Txns
880
Traders
183
Fees
$33
Liquidity
$1,986
Ends
Feb 28, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | lstamer | Yes / 49.5¢ | -27.47 | $13.6 | |
| 1d | S888 | Yes / 51.0¢ | +13.30 | $6.78 | |
| 1d | iusedtowritepoetryforaliving | Yes / 50.0¢ | +14.17 | $7.08 | |
| 1d | perepuk | Yes / 52.0¢ | +20.00 | $10.4 | |
| 1d | lstamer | Yes / 51.0¢ | -60.00 | $30.6 | |
| 1d | perepuk | Yes / 52.0¢ | +20.00 | $10.4 | |
| 1d | perepuk | Yes / 52.0¢ | +20.00 | $10.4 | |
| 1d | perepuk | Yes / 53.0¢ | +20.00 | $10.6 | |
| 1d | MythicalScissors | No / 47.0¢ | -16.69 | $7.84 | |
| 1d | TinyMiny | No / 47.0¢ | -16.36 | $7.69 | |
| 1d | lstamer | Yes / 52.0¢ | -53.05 | $27.6 | |
| 1d | 0xf4cb2dfe9741a27F73EE42EA6Dc6A14B22CB89cD-1776353411265 | Yes / 52.0¢ | -5.03 | $2.62 | |
| 1d | perepuk | Yes / 53.0¢ | +5.03 | $2.67 | |
| 2d | perepuk | Yes / 53.0¢ | +2.56 | $1.36 | |
| 2d | kilkil | Yes / 52.0¢ | -2.56 | $1.33 | |
| 2d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No / 46.0¢ | +18.52 | $8.52 | |
| 2d | 0x8D6361e02E1c6317f23012Bd142EB7B636033490-1778104806317 | Yes / 54.0¢ | +18.52 | $10.2 | |
| 2d | gavinfunda | No / 45.0¢ | -9.58 | $4.31 | |
| 2d | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | No / 46.0¢ | +9.58 | $4.41 | |
| 2d | perepuk | No / 47.0¢ | +1.82 | $0.86 | |
| 2d | MythicalScissors | No / 46.0¢ | -1.82 | $0.84 | |
| 2d | perepuk | No / 47.0¢ | +18.18 | $8.54 | |
| 2d | TheOnePanda | No / 46.0¢ | -18.18 | $8.36 | |
| 2d | iusedtowritepoetryforaliving | No / 46.0¢ | +5.00 | $2.3 | |
| 2d | gem-bot | Yes / 54.0¢ | +19.70 | $10.8 |
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