Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?
ActiveVolume
$3K
Txns
88
Traders
25
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$6,501
Volume
$3K
Txns
88
Traders
25
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$6,501
Ends
Feb 28, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1mo | hitfar | No / 54.0¢ | +14.00 | $7.56 | |
| 1mo | AJSV | Yes / 46.0¢ | +14.00 | $6.44 | |
| 1mo | AJSV | No / 11.0¢ | +16.12 | $1.77 | |
| 1mo | 0x8bcb...8fb296 | No / 11.0¢ | -16.12 | $1.77 | |
| 1mo | S888 | No / 65.0¢ | +26.80 | $17.4 | |
| 1mo | AJSV | Yes / 35.0¢ | +26.80 | $9.38 | |
| 2mo | 213890u12093213 | Yes / 85.0¢ | -53.84 | $45.8 | |
| 2mo | isWaterWet | No / 15.0¢ | -53.84 | $8.08 | |
| 2mo | isWaterWet | No / 65.0¢ | +46.15 | $30 | |
| 2mo | 213890u12093213 | Yes / 35.0¢ | +46.15 | $16.2 | |
| 2mo | isWaterWet | No / 65.0¢ | +7.69 | $5 | |
| 2mo | 213890u12093213 | Yes / 35.0¢ | +7.69 | $2.69 | |
| 2mo | alexkrg | No / 62.0¢ | -4.27 | $2.65 | |
| 2mo | AJSV | Yes / 38.0¢ | +11.86 | $4.51 | |
| 2mo | 0x8bcb...8fb296 | No / 62.0¢ | +16.13 | $10 | |
| 2mo | 0xadd2...76a90d | Yes / 45.0¢ | -5.00 | $2.25 | |
| 2mo | 0x0bc0...80ad7d | No / 55.0¢ | -5.00 | $2.75 | |
| 2mo | 0x0bc0...80ad7d | No / 55.0¢ | +5.00 | $2.75 | |
| 2mo | 0xadd2...76a90d | Yes / 45.0¢ | +5.00 | $2.25 | |
| 2mo | BeroDank | No / 48.0¢ | -1.44 | $0.69 | |
| 2mo | IrthBirth | No / 48.0¢ | +1.44 | $0.69 | |
| 3mo | AJSV | Yes / 31.0¢ | +1.45 | $0.45 | |
| 3mo | BeroDank | No / 69.0¢ | +1.45 | $1 | |
| 3mo | 0xc484...244123 | Yes / 43.0¢ | -7.00 | $3.01 | |
| 3mo | 0xf4c0...8fdac7 | No / 57.0¢ | -7.00 | $3.99 |
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