
Volume
$2K
Txns
356
Traders
65
Fees
$0
Ends
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Trades
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
No 100%$1.42Mvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
No 54%$188Kvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Yes 60%$188Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 98%$1.22Mvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
No 64%$68.7Kvolume
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
No 100%$709Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1mo | 0x1E82E3Eb816aAf755AC9b44BC9d98F01b08AAF92-1772042958755 | No / 99.9¢ | +70.55 | $70.5 | |
| 1mo | PapaUsdcs | Yes / 0.1¢ | +70.55 | $0.07 | |
| 1mo | 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-0717159345256 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +0.55 | $0 | |
| 1mo | PapaUsdcs | Yes / 0.1¢ | +29.45 | $0.03 | |
| 1mo | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -30.00 | $0.03 | |
| 1mo | 0xA05C4259e96B0aE00FeAa737214bF8Bf4e8b6f9F-1731150808149 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.50 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.55 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-0717159345256 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +4.45 | $0 | |
| 1mo | 0x1E82E3Eb816aAf755AC9b44BC9d98F01b08AAF92-1772042958755 | No / 99.9¢ | +20.00 | $20 | |
| 1mo | pd.unique | No / 99.9¢ | +10.50 | $10.5 | |
| 1mo | win-at-all-cost | No / 99.9¢ | +35.60 | $35.6 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +31.61 | $0.03 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +35.60 | $0.04 | |
| 1mo | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -31.61 | $0.03 | |
| 1mo | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -13.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +13.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | pd.unique | No / 99.9¢ | +10.00 | $9.99 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -8.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +8.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -40.00 | $0.04 | |
| 1mo | TENETENET | Yes / 0.1¢ | +40.00 | $0.04 |
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