Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?

The next German federal election is scheduled to take place on February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next German federal election. If the next German Coalition after the election is not announced by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". If a party does not meet fraktion threshold (5% of seats) it will not be counted as part of the coalition. For example, if CDU/CSU, SPD, & BSW form a coalition, but BSW is not a fraktion, the market would resolve to “CDU/CSU & SPD”. Any party which signs a coalition agreement which leads to the appointment of a Chancellor will be considered part of the coalition. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).