
Volume
$398K
Txns
2,579
Traders
293
Fees
$0
Ends
Jul 31, 2025
This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of a named bracket for July 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for July 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2025 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.9¢ | +91.31 | $91.2 | |
| 10mo | Lindorbaby | No / 99.9¢ | -91.31 | $91.2 | |
| 10mo | couchfarm | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,199.08 | $1.2 | |
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.9¢ | +1,199.08 | $1.2K | |
| 10mo | 418Imateapot | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.9¢ | +1,000.00 | $999 | |
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.9¢ | +1,000.00 | $999 | |
| 10mo | 0x020 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.9¢ | +3,000.00 | $3K | |
| 10mo | Edizar | Yes / 0.1¢ | +3,000.00 | $3 | |
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.9¢ | +17.25 | $17.2 | |
| 10mo | Robert760 | No / 99.9¢ | -17.25 | $17.2 | |
| 10mo | St3f | Yes / 0.2¢ | -100.00 | $0.2 | |
| 10mo | St3f | Yes / 0.2¢ | -250.00 | $0.5 | |
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.7¢ | +100.00 | $99.7 | |
| 10mo | bigsus123 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +450.00 | $1 | |
| 10mo | St3f | Yes / 0.1¢ | +500.00 | $0.5 | |
| 10mo | St3f | Yes / 0.1¢ | +500.00 | $0.5 | |
| 10mo | Friday | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 10mo | GobiDesertCanoePro | Yes / 0.3¢ | +20,000.00 | $50.1 | |
| 10mo | St3f | Yes / 0.2¢ | -400.00 | $0.8 | |
| 10mo | Liquidifier | No / 99.8¢ | +9,500.00 | $9.48K | |
| 10mo | cookiejar | No / 99.7¢ | +10,100.00 | $10.1K | |
| 10mo | bigsus123 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +500.00 | $1 | |
| 10mo | Liquidifier | No / 99.8¢ | +500.00 | $499 |
1–25
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 63%$353Kvolume
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 90%$4.86Kvolume
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
No 96%$309Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 71%$412Kvolume
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Yes 80%$145Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026?
No 92%$349volume