Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?
ActiveVolume
$12K
Txns
411
Traders
73
Fees
$112
Liquidity
$2,844
Ends
Volume
$12K
Txns
411
Traders
73
Fees
$112
Liquidity
$2,844
Ends
Jun 10, 2026
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h | Haradwaith | Yes / 8.0¢ | -50.00 | $4 | |
| 7h | St3f | Yes / 8.0¢ | -12.50 | $1 | |
| 7h | generouspirate | Yes / 8.0¢ | +62.50 | $5.23 | |
| 22h | Haradwaith | Yes / 6.0¢ | -100.00 | $6 | |
| 22h | Terry241129 | Yes / 6.0¢ | +176.75 | $11.1 | |
| 22h | rocky42004 | Yes / 6.0¢ | -76.75 | $4.61 | |
| 23h | Terry241129 | Yes / 5.0¢ | +120.00 | $6.29 | |
| 23h | rocky42004 | No / 95.0¢ | +120.00 | $114 | |
| 1d | Rapido1 | No / 94.8¢ | -39.22 | $37.2 | |
| 1d | rocky42004 | No / 95.0¢ | +39.22 | $37.3 | |
| 1d | rocky42004 | Yes / 6.0¢ | -50.00 | $3 | |
| 1d | strangeduck2 | Yes / 6.0¢ | +50.00 | $3.14 | |
| 1d | 0xf94b...f00639 | No / 93.2¢ | -1.25 | $1.17 | |
| 1d | rocky42004 | Yes / 6.0¢ | -1.25 | $0.07 | |
| 1d | 0xF3F7892a6714B8078B5b141f5b8481BeD92e8C35-1771536051142 | Yes / 5.0¢ | -8.18 | $0.41 | |
| 1d | PPMT | No / 94.8¢ | -8.18 | $7.75 | |
| 1d | Haradwaith | Yes / 6.0¢ | +450.00 | $27 | |
| 1d | rocky42004 | Yes / 6.0¢ | +167.00 | $10 | |
| 1d | PPMT | No / 89.0¢ | +9.09 | $8.09 | |
| 1d | begen | Yes / 8.0¢ | +25.00 | $2 | |
| 1d | St3f | Yes / 2.0¢ | +50.00 | $1 | |
| 1d | 0xF3F7892a6714B8078B5b141f5b8481BeD92e8C35-1771536051142 | Yes / 3.0¢ | +8.18 | $0.25 | |
| 1d | ImHereForTheRewards | Yes / 4.9¢ | -1,927.10 | $94.3 | |
| 1d | begen | Yes / 5.0¢ | +40.00 | $2 | |
| 1d | ultralisk | Yes / 2.0¢ | +136.92 | $2.74 |
1–25
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
No 99%$62.8Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 66%$384Kvolume
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
No 98%$356Kvolume
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 97%$381Kvolume
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 56%$323Kvolume
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
No 98%$292Kvolume