Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
ActiveVolume
$50K
Txns
635
Traders
176
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$17
Volume
$50K
Txns
635
Traders
176
Fees
$4
Liquidity
$17
Ends
Feb 28, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20h | bmtr | Yes / 67.9¢ | +196.22 | $135 | |
| 20h | 27kgfdogodgfg | No / 33.0¢ | +12.10 | $3.99 | |
| 20h | 27kgfdogodgfg | No / 32.0¢ | +9.12 | $2.92 | |
| 20h | Lavincey | No / 32.0¢ | +175.00 | $56 | |
| 22h | SaucePolly1 | No / 33.0¢ | +3.30 | $1.09 | |
| 22h | 7... | No / 32.1¢ | -3.30 | $1.06 | |
| 2d | S888 | Yes / 58.0¢ | +10.00 | $5.8 | |
| 2d | 27kgfdogodgfg | No / 41.0¢ | -7.96 | $3.26 | |
| 2d | cqk | No / 41.6¢ | +17.96 | $7.64 | |
| 3d | neutralwave23 | No / 7.7¢ | -7.00 | $0.54 | |
| 3d | 27kgfdogodgfg | No / 8.0¢ | +7.00 | $0.56 | |
| 3d | neutralwave23 | No / 61.0¢ | +7.64 | $4.73 | |
| 3d | AJSV | Yes / 39.0¢ | +7.64 | $2.98 | |
| 8d | AJSV | Yes / 40.0¢ | +1.67 | $0.67 | |
| 8d | iusedtowritepoetryforaliving | No / 60.0¢ | +1.67 | $1.02 | |
| 8d | iusedtowritepoetryforaliving | No / 49.6¢ | +20.28 | $10.3 | |
| 8d | STEVJJJ | Yes / 50.0¢ | +8.00 | $4 | |
| 8d | 27kgfdogodgfg | No / 50.0¢ | -5.00 | $2.5 | |
| 8d | 27kgfdogodgfg | No / 49.0¢ | -7.28 | $3.57 | |
| 8d | iusedtowritepoetryforaliving | Yes / 49.0¢ | +26.41 | $12.9 | |
| 8d | AJSV | No / 51.0¢ | +26.41 | $13.7 | |
| 8d | no1biao | Yes / 49.0¢ | -15.00 | $7.35 | |
| 8d | 27kgfdogodgfg | No / 52.0¢ | +7.08 | $3.68 | |
| 8d | iusedtowritepoetryforaliving | Yes / 47.8¢ | +48.49 | $23.6 | |
| 8d | AJSV | No / 53.0¢ | +26.41 | $14 |
1–25
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