
Volume
$68K
Txns
804
Traders
142
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by xAI has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) continuously from February 18, to March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed modeI ties xAI for the #1 Arena score, it will not qualify to resolve this market to "No." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 93%$3.12Mvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
Yes 99%$76.9Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 87%$1.81Mvolume
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
No 55%$741Kvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
No 98%$62.3Kvolume
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
No 74%$52.5Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | alex562 | No / 99.9¢ | +1,529.54 | $1.53K | |
| 1y | Evador | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,110.54 | $1.11 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +419.00 | $0.42 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | -100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | Ordon | No / 99.9¢ | +5,000.00 | $5K | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +481.00 | $0.48 | |
| 1y | BetterFish | Yes / 0.1¢ | +57.00 | $0.06 | |
| 1y | Evador | Yes / 0.1¢ | +4,362.00 | $4.36 | |
| 1y | PolyDump | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | BetterFish | Yes / 0.1¢ | +443.00 | $0.44 | |
| 1y | Twizzler | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | m20241223 | No / 99.9¢ | +643.00 | $642 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | ujaKanga | Yes / 0.5¢ | -200.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | noyes00 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +200.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | elon777 | Yes / 0.3¢ | +161.20 | $0.48 | |
| 1y | usbtypec | Yes / 0.2¢ | -2,000.00 | $4.16 | |
| 1y | alex562 | No / 99.8¢ | -1,838.80 | $1.84K | |
| 1y | elon777 | Yes / 0.3¢ | +1,659.40 | $4.98 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.3¢ | -1,659.40 | $4.98 | |
| 1y | 8396239287 | No / 99.6¢ | -234.10 | $233 | |
| 1y | elon777 | Yes / 0.3¢ | +165.90 | $0.5 | |
| 1y | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 0.4¢ | -400.00 | $1.43 | |
| 1y | 8396239287 | No / 99.6¢ | -700.00 | $697 |
1–25