Will "Incident" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2025 the 97th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 2, 2025. This market will resolve according to the film which wins the Academy Award for Best Documentary Short Film. If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.