
Volume
$44K
Txns
1,085
Traders
230
Fees
$0
Ends
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Trades
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
No 100%$15.1Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
No 100%$20.8Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
No 74%$48.9Mvolume
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
No 100%$32.1Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
No 99%$27Mvolume
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Yes 99%$10.9Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26d | GCNO1 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -12.75 | $0.01 | |
| 26d | Zainj6 | No / 99.9¢ | -12.75 | $12.7 | |
| 26d | Idah56 | No / 99.9¢ | -20.00 | $20 | |
| 26d | GCNO1 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -20.00 | $0.02 | |
| 26d | moneysaver1 | No / 99.9¢ | -11.80 | $11.8 | |
| 26d | moneysaver1 | No / 99.9¢ | -6.09 | $6.08 | |
| 26d | 0x405809651DaE4E0556E8F3740B1e16A7DF2D35b5-1768388246454 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 26d | 4... | Yes / 0.2¢ | +34.12 | $0.07 | |
| 26d | GCNO1 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 26d | livepo1y | No / 99.9¢ | -15.67 | $15.7 | |
| 26d | livepo1y | No / 99.9¢ | -15.67 | $15.7 | |
| 26d | Trustinghorse | No / 99.9¢ | +1,170.93 | $1.17K | |
| 26d | 4... | Yes / 0.2¢ | +34.28 | $0.07 | |
| 26d | livepo1y | No / 99.9¢ | -29.30 | $29.3 | |
| 26d | 0x716d...7870a8 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.00 | $0.01 | |
| 26d | 4... | Yes / 0.2¢ | +85.91 | $0.17 | |
| 26d | 4... | Yes / 0.2¢ | +105.54 | $0.21 | |
| 26d | 4... | Yes / 0.2¢ | +50.77 | $0.1 | |
| 26d | Helldiver015 | Yes / 0.2¢ | -242.22 | $0.48 | |
| 26d | PPMT | No / 99.2¢ | -47.70 | $47.3 | |
| 26d | 4... | Yes / 0.7¢ | +18.05 | $0.13 | |
| 26d | GCNO1 | No / 99.2¢ | +65.75 | $65.2 | |
| 26d | PPMT | No / 98.6¢ | +45.00 | $44.4 | |
| 26d | 4... | Yes / 1.5¢ | -24.67 | $0.37 | |
| 26d | 0x4a70...85a50b | Yes / 1.4¢ | +69.67 | $1 |
1–25