Will Kamala lead in RCP by 3.5 or more on Oct 4?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of October 4, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is Harris +3.5 or more percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on October 4, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by October 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of October 4, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.