Will Ken Paxton win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?

Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.