Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 22% and 24% of votes in the first round?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the vote share Luís Marques Mendes wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by Luís Marques Mendes. If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).