Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
ActiveVolume
$18K
Txns
453
Traders
87
Fees
$160
Liquidity
$6,001
Ends
Jun 10, 2026
Volume
$18K
Txns
453
Traders
87
Fees
$160
Liquidity
$6,001
Ends
Jun 10, 2026
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h | l1nkus | Yes / 14.9¢ | -2.22 | $0.33 | |
| 12h | Frosty2 | No / 84.5¢ | -2.22 | $1.88 | |
| 1d | 0xB8eE94bD599A92D4747DdA5f3bc6D2B243349e81-1765943326811 | No / 88.5¢ | -32.00 | $28.3 | |
| 1d | Mirotadze | No / 89.0¢ | +10.35 | $9.21 | |
| 1d | Bigggggggg | Yes / 11.0¢ | -21.65 | $2.38 | |
| 1d | trsp1271 | Yes / 11.0¢ | +136.36 | $15.7 | |
| 1d | Mirotadze | No / 89.0¢ | +136.36 | $121 | |
| 1d | AJSV | No / 89.3¢ | +10.17 | $9.08 | |
| 1d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 10.7¢ | +10.17 | $1.14 | |
| 1d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 10.3¢ | +242.42 | $26.1 | |
| 1d | PPMT | No / 90.7¢ | +45.00 | $40.8 | |
| 1d | Bigggggggg | Yes / 10.8¢ | -81.78 | $8.83 | |
| 1d | Mirotadze | No / 89.0¢ | +72.25 | $64.3 | |
| 1d | Bigggggggg | Yes / 9.3¢ | -43.39 | $4.04 | |
| 1d | 0xB8eE94bD599A92D4747DdA5f3bc6D2B243349e81-1765943326811 | No / 88.6¢ | -8.00 | $7.09 | |
| 1d | AJSV | No / 89.1¢ | +8.00 | $7.13 | |
| 1d | 0xB8eE94bD599A92D4747DdA5f3bc6D2B243349e81-1765943326811 | No / 90.6¢ | -8.00 | $7.25 | |
| 1d | Bigggggggg | Yes / 9.0¢ | -8.00 | $0.72 | |
| 1d | ghostjoker | Yes / 2.0¢ | +0.29 | $0.01 | |
| 1d | TraderProMax | Yes / 7.6¢ | +25.00 | $1.9 | |
| 1d | Danny283847490191 | No / 92.4¢ | +54.09 | $50.2 | |
| 1d | PPMT | No / 92.4¢ | -28.80 | $26.6 | |
| 1d | Bigggggggg | Yes / 6.9¢ | -53.66 | $3.7 | |
| 1d | PCMTest | No / 92.8¢ | -53.66 | $49.8 | |
| 1d | AJSV | No / 91.6¢ | +21.83 | $20 |
1–25
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
No 99%$62.8Kvolume
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
No 98%$356Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 66%$383Kvolume
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 97%$381Kvolume
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 56%$323Kvolume
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
No 98%$292Kvolume