Will Medina win by 7-12%?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Bolivia on August 17, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2025 Bolivian Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in Bolivian Presidential Election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve solely based on the first official vote count released by the Bolivian Government, specifically the Plurinational Electoral Body (Órgano Electoral Plurinacional, OEP) (https://www.oep.org.bo/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.