Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
ActiveVolume
$263
Txns
22
Traders
11
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$4,069
Ends
Volume
$263
Txns
22
Traders
11
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$4,069
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19h | nani | Yes / 8.7¢ | -50.00 | $4.34 | |
| 19h | Wordsmith | Yes / 9.0¢ | +50.00 | $4.5 | |
| 19h | Wordsmith | Yes / 9.0¢ | +30.00 | $2.7 | |
| 19h | nani | Yes / 9.0¢ | +50.00 | $4.5 | |
| 19h | 0x7a28z1 | No / 91.0¢ | +200.00 | $183 | |
| 19h | thecaricature | Yes / 9.0¢ | +20.00 | $1.8 | |
| 19h | thecaricature | Yes / 9.0¢ | +100.00 | $9 | |
| 1d | thecaricature | No / 90.0¢ | +1.00 | $0.9 | |
| 1d | 0xc6d7...fb4399 | Yes / 10.0¢ | +11.00 | $1.14 | |
| 1d | thecaricature | No / 90.0¢ | +10.00 | $9 | |
| 16d | 247525 | Yes / 9.0¢ | +10.00 | $0.9 | |
| 16d | dsaasdwe5435 | Yes / 8.7¢ | -10.00 | $0.87 | |
| 16d | dsaasdwe5435 | Yes / 10.0¢ | +9.96 | $1 | |
| 16d | thecaricature | No / 90.0¢ | +10.00 | $9 | |
| 17d | title1 | Yes / 7.7¢ | -20.00 | $1.54 | |
| 17d | thecaricature | Yes / 8.0¢ | +20.00 | $1.6 | |
| 18d | title1 | Yes / 9.0¢ | +20.00 | $1.8 | |
| 18d | allesklar | Yes / 8.7¢ | -20.00 | $1.73 | |
| 18d | Mussia | Yes / 8.7¢ | -20.00 | $1.73 | |
| 18d | allesklar | Yes / 9.0¢ | +20.00 | $1.8 | |
| 18d | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No / 90.0¢ | +20.00 | $18 | |
| 18d | Mussia | Yes / 10.0¢ | +19.93 | $2 |
1–22
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
No 98%$387Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 97%$1.01Mvolume
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?
Yes 100%$81.8Kvolume
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Yes 71%$506Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 70%$883Kvolume
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100%$1.82Mvolume