Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
ActiveVolume
$5K
Txns
696
Traders
107
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$3,244
Volume
$5K
Txns
696
Traders
107
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$3,244
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | flexer78 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +12.10 | $0.06 | |
| 1d | melchior1248 | No / 99.5¢ | +12.10 | $12 | |
| 1d | Haradwaith | Yes / 2.1¢ | +4.39 | $0.09 | |
| 1d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 2.0¢ | -4.39 | $0.09 | |
| 1d | cashmashine | Yes / 0.7¢ | -10.00 | $0.07 | |
| 1d | trade333 | Yes / 1.7¢ | -7.40 | $0.13 | |
| 1d | 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes / 1.8¢ | -99.99 | $1.8 | |
| 1d | asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | Yes / 1.7¢ | +153.00 | $2.78 | |
| 1d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 1.9¢ | -35.61 | $0.68 | |
| 2d | pd.unique | No / 99.8¢ | +4.95 | $4.94 | |
| 2d | ultralisk | Yes / 0.2¢ | +4.95 | $0.01 | |
| 2d | ultralisk | Yes / 0.2¢ | +7.62 | $0.02 | |
| 2d | korda77 | Yes / 0.2¢ | -7.62 | $0.01 | |
| 2d | korda77 | Yes / 0.7¢ | -71.38 | $0.48 | |
| 2d | jozeslemsek | Yes / 0.7¢ | +71.38 | $0.5 | |
| 2d | smallreceipt | No / 99.3¢ | +30.00 | $29.8 | |
| 2d | jozeslemsek | Yes / 0.7¢ | +30.00 | $0.21 | |
| 2d | korda77 | No / 99.3¢ | +79.00 | $78.5 | |
| 2d | jozeslemsek | Yes / 0.7¢ | +7.00 | $0.05 | |
| 2d | jozeslemsek | Yes / 0.7¢ | +79.00 | $0.55 | |
| 2d | northdrawer | No / 99.3¢ | +7.00 | $6.95 | |
| 2d | jozeslemsek | Yes / 0.7¢ | +72.60 | $0.51 | |
| 2d | jozeslemsek | Yes / 0.7¢ | +40.02 | $0.28 | |
| 2d | mustbethewater | No / 99.3¢ | +40.02 | $39.8 | |
| 2d | northdrawer | No / 99.3¢ | +80.00 | $79.5 |
1–25
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
No 99%$391Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 97%$1.02Mvolume
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?
Yes 100%$81.8Kvolume
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Yes 72%$510Kvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
No 85%$70.7Kvolume
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100%$1.82Mvolume