Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
ActiveVolume
$409K
Txns
7,421
Traders
1,128
Fees
$107
Liquidity
$4,937
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
Volume
$409K
Txns
7,421
Traders
1,128
Fees
$107
Liquidity
$4,937
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h | CompulsiveGambler | No / 90.0¢ | -40.00 | $36 | |
| 15h | vchjgfhjgdcf | No / 90.0¢ | +40.00 | $36.1 | |
| 17h | Wojtek | Yes / 12.0¢ | -47.77 | $5.73 | |
| 17h | Rr55 | No / 88.0¢ | +35.56 | $31.3 | |
| 17h | 0x51C8Dbac7624F214e9aFf815DDcA49B7639A22d8-1766273812029 | Yes / 12.0¢ | +83.33 | $10.4 | |
| 1d | SingletonFamilyFund | No / 88.6¢ | -262.14 | $232 | |
| 1d | ployJojo | Yes / 11.0¢ | -262.14 | $28.8 | |
| 1d | CompulsiveGambler | No / 90.0¢ | -6.66 | $5.99 | |
| 1d | ABLAST- | Yes / 9.6¢ | -6.66 | $0.64 | |
| 1d | ployJojo | Yes / 11.0¢ | -32.05 | $3.53 | |
| 1d | 0xbc1f...4657f0 | No / 88.5¢ | -32.05 | $28.4 | |
| 2d | CompulsiveGambler | No / 90.0¢ | -7.14 | $6.43 | |
| 2d | Cromartie | Yes / 9.6¢ | -7.14 | $0.69 | |
| 2d | Rr55 | No / 88.0¢ | +5.19 | $4.57 | |
| 2d | 0xca30...737eb2 | No / 87.6¢ | -5.19 | $4.55 | |
| 2d | CompulsiveGambler | No / 90.0¢ | -21.73 | $19.6 | |
| 2d | 0xFFF208BAB5BDcA39041859B464bA34732ADc8eE5-1776426316210 | Yes / 9.6¢ | -21.73 | $2.09 | |
| 3d | Rr55 | No / 88.0¢ | +59.25 | $52.1 | |
| 3d | t0x010 | No / 87.6¢ | -59.25 | $51.9 | |
| 3d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 11.0¢ | -23.72 | $2.61 | |
| 3d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 11.0¢ | -17.13 | $1.88 | |
| 3d | t0x010 | No / 88.6¢ | -60.85 | $53.9 | |
| 3d | bridgebeneth | No / 89.0¢ | +20.00 | $17.8 | |
| 3d | 0xef311fa80d578e033b1445105458d43629b4826 | No / 89.0¢ | +5.00 | $4.45 | |
| 3d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 11.0¢ | -12.43 | $1.37 |
1–25
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
No 99%$374Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 97%$1Mvolume
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Yes 75%$503Kvolume
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
No 52%$40.1Kvolume
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
No 99%$558Kvolume
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?
Yes 99%$37.8Kvolume