
Volume
$3M
Txns
11,688
Traders
1,498
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Department of Defense (DoD) ends its business relationship with Anthropic or bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models by DoD personnel or DoD contractors by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The DoD ending its business relationship with Anthropic refers to any contract termination, cancellation, non-renewal, or other official action which ends the DoD’s contracting relationship with Anthropic such that DoD personnel will no longer be authorized to use Claude. A qualifying ban must apply broadly to DoD personnel's use of Claude on government-issued devices and/or for DoD-related tasks. Limited bans restricted to the use of Claude for certain purposes or by specific groups of personnel will not count. Limited exceptions to an otherwise qualifying ban, however, will not disqualify a ban from counting, so long as the default policy for DoD personnel is a ban on the use of Claude. Any official DoD or US federal Government order, directive, or policy which broadly bans the use of Anthropic Claude AI models amongst DoD contractors or demands that DoD contractors generally sever ties with Anthropic will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. An official announcement, from the DoD or another US federal government authority with relevant jurisdiction, of a policy or decision to end the DoD's business relationship with Anthropic or ban the use of Claude by DoD personnel or contractors within this market’s timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the policy/decision is stated to go into effect. Suggestions, speculation, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from Pete Hegseth, the Department of Defense, and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
No 100%$189Kvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
Yes 100%$120Kvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
Yes 100%$116Kvolume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 94%$3.16Mvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?
No 100%$74.8Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 85%$1.83Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3mo | tourists | Yes / 99.9¢ | -15,904.11 | $15.9K | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +3,292.76 | $3.29K | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +9,993.00 | $9.98K | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +2,618.35 | $2.62K | |
| 3mo | JuanPaalt | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,000.00 | $999 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,000.00 | $999 | |
| 3mo | 0xa00A4C77E5C192eFA1E626189F5D31f766099dB8-1772231204489 | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +47.18 | $47.1 | |
| 3mo | 0xd730...811948 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -97.31 | $97.2 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +40.14 | $40.1 | |
| 3mo | Ttt113 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -1,001.00 | $1000 | |
| 3mo | 0xd730...811948 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -40.14 | $40.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +97.31 | $97.2 | |
| 3mo | 0x432b...f260d3 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -23.13 | $23.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,001.00 | $1000 | |
| 3mo | 0xd730...811948 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -47.18 | $47.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +23.13 | $23.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1.10 | $1.1 | |
| 3mo | kdmcinzimwj4 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -1.10 | $1.1 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +13.04 | $13 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1.82 | $1.82 | |
| 3mo | eztsmpx4g1gz | Yes / 99.9¢ | -9.89 | $9.88 | |
| 3mo | 411tfoi4yzgg | Yes / 99.9¢ | -2.20 | $2.2 | |
| 3mo | ZhangMuZhi.. | Yes / 99.9¢ | +17.63 | $17.6 |
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