Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).