Will Reiwa Shinsengumi hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?

The 27th general election of the House of Councillors is scheduled to be held in Japan by July 27, 2025, to elect half of the 248 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, for a term of six years. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Japan's House of Councillors as a result of the upcoming election, not any coalition of which it may be a part. If voting in the next Japanese election for the House of Councillors does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between a party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed for a party, the name of that party will be used. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based solely on the certified results as reported by Japan's government, specifically the Central Election Management Council (https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00200236). Certified results are typically published within 5 days of the election.