Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if António José Seguro receives the highest number of valid votes cast by Portuguese voters abroad in the second round of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A tie for the highest number of valid votes will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. This market will resolve based on the result of the second round of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, such as on the Website of the Portuguese Ministry of Internal Administration (Ministério da Administração Interna) (www.presidenciais2026.mai.gov.pt).