Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).