
Volume
$3M
Txns
10,063
Traders
1,560
Fees
$251
Liquidity
$197,598
Ends
May 23, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
No 64%$8.63Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
No 52%$41.4Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
No 91%$23.1Mvolume
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Yes 98%$3.35Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 57%$12.6Mvolume
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
No 98%$48.8Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2m | fulushou888 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -69.00 | $68.9 | |
| 2m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -69.00 | $0.07 | |
| 7m | Motosha | Yes / 99.9¢ | -111.75 | $112 | |
| 7m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -111.75 | $0.11 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -111.75 | $0.11 | |
| 8m | Motosha | Yes / 99.9¢ | -111.75 | $112 | |
| 8m | newstrat | Yes / 99.9¢ | -20.44 | $20.4 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -20.44 | $0.02 | |
| 8m | Jordannnnnnn | Yes / 99.9¢ | -19.90 | $19.9 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -19.90 | $0.02 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -19.51 | $0.02 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -29.75 | $0.03 | |
| 8m | cathy077 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -29.75 | $29.7 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -19.18 | $0.02 | |
| 8m | 0xc52f...980981 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -260.20 | $260 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -260.20 | $0.26 | |
| 8m | buongiornoamico | Yes / 99.9¢ | -19.18 | $19.2 | |
| 8m | jordaaaannn | Yes / 99.9¢ | -19.60 | $19.6 | |
| 8m | dabai | No / 0.1¢ | -19.60 | $0.02 | |
| 8m | Jordan073469 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -19.51 | $19.5 | |
| 8m | adasol | No / 0.1¢ | -1,090.57 | $1.09 | |
| 8m | buongiornoamico | Yes / 99.9¢ | +19.18 | $19.2 | |
| 8m | newstrat | Yes / 99.9¢ | +20.44 | $20.4 | |
| 8m | jordaaaannn | Yes / 99.9¢ | +19.60 | $19.6 | |
| 8m | cathy077 | Yes / 99.9¢ | +29.75 | $29.7 |
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