
Volume
$3M
Txns
16,729
Traders
1,564
Fees
$2,785
Liquidity
$229,183
Ends
May 25, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date. Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
No 89%$15.3Mvolume
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Yes 98%$7.35Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
No 66%$46Mvolume
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
No 99%$11.2Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
No 98%$24.8Mvolume
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
No 100%$29.8Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0s | attackrelease | No / 97.6¢ | -50.00 | $48.8 | |
| 0s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -50.00 | $1.2 | |
| 11s | 0x7e1d26dEabD3A41471283744E4050528C30bbC25-1770681226995 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +125.00 | $3 | |
| 11s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -125.00 | $3 | |
| 18s | 0x606fFc68a29eBf92F9dc1d041FeC5d0127571083-1769265164411 | No / 97.7¢ | -234.35 | $229 | |
| 18s | troim | Yes / 2.2¢ | +2,214.21 | $48.7 | |
| 18s | Voidofhype | No / 97.7¢ | -260.00 | $254 | |
| 18s | siick | No / 97.8¢ | -3,997.13 | $3.91K | |
| 18s | FinishTheJob | Yes / 2.2¢ | -6,705.69 | $148 | |
| 20s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 20s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 20s | testik2 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 20s | testik2 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 20s | testik2 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 20s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | testik2 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | testik2 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | testik2 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | testik2 | Yes / 2.4¢ | +100.00 | $2.4 | |
| 21s | TBill1 | Yes / 2.4¢ | -100.00 | $2.4 |
1–25