Will the next US Speaker be elected in four ballots?

The election for the 2025 Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on January 3, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the House for the 119th United States Congress is elected on the fourth ballot. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any individual elected to be, appointed to be, or serving as Speaker pro tempore in the 119th congress will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.