Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45-60 days to elect members of the Thai House of Representatives (Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon). This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the People’s Party (PPLE) in the Thai House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 Thai legislative election. This market will resolve based solely on the number of seats won by the People’s Party (PPLE), and not on any coalition, alliance, or governing arrangement of which it may be a part. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Thai government, specifically the Thai Election Commission.