Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
ActiveVolume
$30M
Txns
184,572
Traders
12,486
Fees
$115
Liquidity
$522,677
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Volume
$30M
Txns
184,572
Traders
12,486
Fees
$115
Liquidity
$522,677
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3m | 0x303aE8A0e5CFf9FBC4AcdDf6e9C61012BC33c26a-1779244971807 | No / 72.0¢ | -19.11 | $13.8 | |
| 3m | bc7g | No / 72.0¢ | +19.11 | $13.8 | |
| 11m | bc7g | No / 72.0¢ | +357.14 | $257 | |
| 11m | charlibataire | Yes / 28.0¢ | +357.14 | $100 | |
| 11m | bc7g | No / 72.0¢ | +107.14 | $77.1 | |
| 11m | ChainReaction-392 | Yes / 28.0¢ | +107.14 | $30 | |
| 13m | ChainReaction-392 | Yes / 28.0¢ | +100.00 | $28 | |
| 13m | bc7g | No / 72.0¢ | +100.00 | $72 | |
| 14m | KnureKnume | Yes / 27.0¢ | +273.97 | $74 | |
| 14m | ermorvan | No / 73.0¢ | +273.97 | $200 | |
| 15m | bc7g | No / 72.0¢ | +200.00 | $144 | |
| 15m | ChainReaction-392 | Yes / 28.0¢ | +200.00 | $56 | |
| 16m | 0x814e...3a6ea3 | Yes / 27.0¢ | -40.66 | $11 | |
| 16m | KnureKnume | Yes / 27.0¢ | +14.28 | $3.86 | |
| 16m | 332bambam | Yes / 27.0¢ | +26.38 | $7.12 | |
| 19m | 0x8e5f4F83edC5454fe7dE5984756449CB4742fF83-1779288937212 | Yes / 27.0¢ | -3.22 | $0.87 | |
| 19m | 332bambam | Yes / 27.0¢ | +3.22 | $0.87 | |
| 25m | 0xAd42E33b119A8A3458e13865e37F721a5dBc9b0E-1779184873159 | Yes / 27.0¢ | -6.43 | $1.74 | |
| 25m | iPhone5 | Yes / 27.0¢ | +6.43 | $1.74 | |
| 25m | iPhone5 | No / 73.0¢ | +8.00 | $5.84 | |
| 25m | Brokemaker | Yes / 27.0¢ | -5.00 | $1.35 | |
| 25m | quzi | Yes / 28.0¢ | -24.07 | $6.74 | |
| 25m | bc7g | No / 72.0¢ | +19.54 | $14.1 | |
| 25m | GollumGekko | Yes / 27.0¢ | -205.30 | $55.4 | |
| 25m | ktv.01 | Yes / 28.0¢ | -15.00 | $4.2 |
1–25
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
No 95%$2.59Mvolume
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No 99%$24.6Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
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US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
No 93%$1.39Mvolume
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
No 78%$1.82Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
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