Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from Mexico by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Mexican imports will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Mexican goods. Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting Mexico will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Mexican provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution. Item-specific tariff exemptions, such as those outlined in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection notice dated April 11, 2025, which excluded 25 HTSUS codes covering electronics, will not qualify. Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.