Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?
ActiveVolume
$3K
Txns
285
Traders
84
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$1,390
Ends
Volume
$3K
Txns
285
Traders
84
Fees
$1
Liquidity
$1,390
Ends
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d | AJSV | Yes / 39.0¢ | +3.00 | $1.17 | |
| 2d | DkOYL | No / 61.0¢ | +3.00 | $1.87 | |
| 4d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 28.0¢ | +20.00 | $5.6 | |
| 4d | AJSV | Yes / 28.0¢ | +7.00 | $1.96 | |
| 4d | graynotebook19 | No / 72.0¢ | +27.00 | $19.7 | |
| 7d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 15.3¢ | -6.55 | $1 | |
| 7d | AJSV | Yes / 16.0¢ | +6.55 | $1.05 | |
| 7d | 0x0b08...8d857f | Yes / 8.6¢ | -4.92 | $0.42 | |
| 7d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 9.0¢ | +4.92 | $0.44 | |
| 7d | ttt1112 | Yes / 14.4¢ | -1.63 | $0.23 | |
| 7d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes / 15.0¢ | +1.63 | $0.24 | |
| 7d | b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No / 39.0¢ | +1.64 | $0.64 | |
| 7d | ttt1112 | Yes / 61.0¢ | +1.64 | $1.02 | |
| 13d | PPMT | Yes / 39.0¢ | -12.00 | $4.68 | |
| 13d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 39.0¢ | -34.49 | $13.5 | |
| 13d | tonifili | No / 59.8¢ | -46.49 | $27.8 | |
| 16d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 33.9¢ | -6.76 | $2.29 | |
| 16d | tonifili | No / 65.0¢ | -6.76 | $4.39 | |
| 16d | DkOYL | No / 57.7¢ | +2.97 | $1.72 | |
| 16d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 43.0¢ | +3.01 | $1.29 | |
| 16d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 43.0¢ | +3.95 | $1.7 | |
| 16d | DkOYL | No / 57.7¢ | +3.90 | $2.25 | |
| 16d | itsjustcheddar | No / 58.7¢ | +9.88 | $5.8 | |
| 16d | PPMT | Yes / 42.0¢ | +10.00 | $4.2 | |
| 20d | allesklar | Yes / 31.9¢ | -5.59 | $1.78 |
1–25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Yes 98%$7.76Mvolume
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 99%$3.64Mvolume
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$3.34Mvolume
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$3.61Mvolume
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 68%$4.33Mvolume
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 99%$4.15Mvolume