Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
ActiveVolume
$553K
Txns
4,763
Traders
931
Fees
$32
Liquidity
$7,301
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
Volume
$553K
Txns
4,763
Traders
931
Fees
$32
Liquidity
$7,301
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h | Wojtek | Yes / 4.0¢ | +59.99 | $2.4 | |
| 5h | Jjw | No / 96.0¢ | +59.99 | $57.7 | |
| 1d | Jjw | No / 95.0¢ | +138.89 | $132 | |
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 5.0¢ | +138.89 | $6.94 | |
| 1d | ABLAST- | Yes / 4.8¢ | -11.11 | $0.53 | |
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 5.0¢ | +11.11 | $0.56 | |
| 1d | LazySusan | No / 93.8¢ | -22.38 | $21 | |
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 6.0¢ | -22.38 | $1.34 | |
| 2d | Jjw | No / 95.0¢ | +50.00 | $47.5 | |
| 2d | Wojtek | Yes / 5.0¢ | +50.00 | $2.6 | |
| 2d | gadfgarg | Yes / 3.8¢ | -3.57 | $0.14 | |
| 2d | Wojtek | Yes / 4.0¢ | +3.57 | $0.14 | |
| 2d | KekaVelli | Yes / 3.8¢ | -119.99 | $4.62 | |
| 2d | Wojtek | Yes / 4.0¢ | +119.99 | $4.8 | |
| 2d | Wojtek | Yes / 6.0¢ | -11.33 | $0.68 | |
| 2d | KekaVelli | Yes / 5.9¢ | +119.99 | $7.37 | |
| 2d | Jjw | No / 95.0¢ | +10.00 | $9.5 | |
| 2d | marikmarakesh | No / 94.0¢ | +50.00 | $47 | |
| 2d | pashokthepashtet | No / 94.0¢ | +48.66 | $45.7 | |
| 2d | puposalbani | Yes / 3.8¢ | -5.00 | $0.19 | |
| 2d | Wojtek | Yes / 4.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.2 | |
| 3d | asymptoticnormality | No / 94.8¢ | -100.00 | $94.8 | |
| 3d | Jjw | No / 95.0¢ | +100.00 | $95 | |
| 4d | 0x30589337d24682b43e61F66D5e8Fb5cD49b1a33b-1765134708767 | No / 94.7¢ | -14.49 | $13.7 | |
| 4d | oscalpaster | No / 95.0¢ | +13.15 | $12.5 |
1–25
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