Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 12% and 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?

This market will resolve according to the ranked-choice voting (RCV) margin of victory for the listed candidate in the 2025 Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, scheduled for June 24, 2025. For the purpose of resolving this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute percentage-point difference between the final-round vote share received by the listed candidate and the vote share received by the other candidate in the final RCV round. Final-round vote shares will be calculated by dividing each of the final two candidates’ vote totals by the combined total of their votes in that round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If all listed candidates ate eliminated before the final round of RCV tabulation or do not receive the most votes in the final round, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official certified results of the final RCV round as published by the New York City Board of Elections. If a recount is initiated prior to certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and results are certified. A recount initiated after certification will not affect market resolution.