
Volume
$1M
Txns
6,102
Traders
1,227
Fees
$0
Ends
Oct 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior October when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for October 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for October, and if 2024 October is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 October is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
No 100%$25.6Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
No 99%$44.1Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 99%$12.1Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
No 100%$66.9Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?
No 99%$43.3Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
Yes 98%$27.1Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | AgricultureSecretary | No / 99.8¢ | +425.77 | $425 | |
| 1y | FacuGOLAZO | No / 99.8¢ | -425.77 | $425 | |
| 1y | AgricultureSecretary | No / 99.8¢ | +105.26 | $105 | |
| 1y | Konkor | No / 99.8¢ | -105.26 | $105 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.7¢ | +11.17 | $11.1 | |
| 1y | volcanicviper | No / 99.7¢ | -11.17 | $11.1 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.7¢ | +15.54 | $15.5 | |
| 1y | Bibi564 | No / 99.7¢ | -15.54 | $15.5 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.7¢ | +118.25 | $118 | |
| 1y | SpookyEgoz | No / 99.7¢ | -118.25 | $118 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.7¢ | +545.63 | $544 | |
| 1y | Mrstetson | No / 99.7¢ | -545.63 | $544 | |
| 1y | JimSimons | No / 99.6¢ | -9.63 | $9.59 | |
| 1y | longtern | No / 99.6¢ | +9.63 | $9.59 | |
| 1y | hackender | No / 99.6¢ | -2.20 | $2.19 | |
| 1y | longtern | No / 99.6¢ | +2.20 | $2.19 | |
| 1y | efren1983 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +9,967.96 | $9.97 | |
| 1y | poly0xd41 | No / 99.9¢ | +10,324.35 | $10.3K | |
| 1y | AndresLeee | No / 99.9¢ | -356.39 | $356 | |
| 1y | sorcerer.money | No / 96.5¢ | +28.57 | $27.6 | |
| 1y | 0xBcB0973Fc59350D1Ca418dff438397bab9DC0449-1723364024090 | Yes / 3.5¢ | +28.57 | $1 | |
| 1y | cziku | No / 99.9¢ | +32.03 | $32 | |
| 1y | efren1983 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +32.03 | $0.03 | |
| 1y | Issss | No / 99.8¢ | -38.37 | $38.3 | |
| 1y | Geromi | No / 99.8¢ | -25.00 | $24.9 |
1–25