
Volume
$82K
Txns
1,322
Traders
174
Fees
$0
Ends
Sep 30, 2025
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2025 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If 2025 September is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2025 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
1–25
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Yes 100%$33.7Kvolume
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
No 100%$32Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 70%$412Kvolume
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 64%$353Kvolume
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
No 97%$309Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026?
No 99%$1.06Kvolume