Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?

The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”. If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50 Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.