
Volume
$6M
Txns
41,425
Traders
4,856
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
No 100%$7.03Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
No 96%$18.2Mvolume
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
No 99%$1.33Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
No 99%$5.9Mvolume
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?
No 100%$1.45Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
No 83%$22.3Mvolume
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