
Volume
$8K
Txns
1,084
Traders
158
Fees
$0
Ends
Apr 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from April 13, 2026, through April 19, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Trades
1–25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
No 93%$11.1Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
No 79%$43.6Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
No 97%$23.7Mvolume
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
No 100%$1.44Mvolume
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
No 99%$1.52Mvolume
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
Yes 100%$3.06Mvolume