
Volume
$2M
Txns
14,342
Traders
2,620
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 31, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between January 29, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No 93%$72.6Mvolume
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
No 99%$11.1Mvolume
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
No 99%$1.47Mvolume
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?
No 94%$26Kvolume
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Yes 89%$349Kvolume
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No 85%$1.64Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.8¢ | +35.35 | $35.3 | |
| 5mo | RespectWomen69 | No / 99.8¢ | -35.35 | $35.3 | |
| 5mo | woth65 | No / 99.8¢ | -20.61 | $20.6 | |
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.8¢ | +20.61 | $20.6 | |
| 5mo | 0xf30d8456Dbef5D04AA20F25941a79975d1bfc9d0-1771996928994 | No / 99.8¢ | -168.44 | $168 | |
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.8¢ | +168.44 | $168 | |
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.8¢ | +21.14 | $21.1 | |
| 5mo | wiwian | No / 99.8¢ | -21.14 | $21.1 | |
| 5mo | Muxi0 | No / 99.8¢ | -30.19 | $30.1 | |
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.8¢ | +30.19 | $30.1 | |
| 5mo | 04ece9 | No / 99.8¢ | -12.12 | $12.1 | |
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.8¢ | +12.12 | $12.1 | |
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.8¢ | +50.10 | $50 | |
| 5mo | PeakyJML | No / 99.8¢ | -50.10 | $50 | |
| 5mo | 0x0a23...3aaa25 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 5mo | fLoxWpIJ | No / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 5mo | oy7TPI2AB1PL9o | No / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 5mo | LBZone | No / 99.9¢ | +30.00 | $30 | |
| 5mo | F9EJnIqHUJ | No / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 5mo | HFHXArIw | No / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 5mo | oy7TPI2AB1PL9o | No / 99.8¢ | +5.00 | $4.99 | |
| 5mo | fLoxWpIJ | No / 99.7¢ | +5.00 | $4.99 | |
| 5mo | minda | No / 99.8¢ | -31.09 | $31 | |
| 5mo | mountaingreen | Yes / 0.3¢ | -0.59 | $0 | |
| 5mo | mountaingreen | Yes / 0.2¢ | -7.50 | $0.01 |
1–25