
Volume
$285K
Txns
2,109
Traders
572
Fees
$0
Ends
Jan 31, 2025
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on earth between January 1 and January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until March 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | ticktokyes | No / 99.9¢ | -12.38 | $12.4 | |
| 1y | ThereIsNoSpoon | No / 99.9¢ | +12.38 | $12.4 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | johnsonroy | No / 99.9¢ | -0.97 | $0.97 | |
| 1y | sarahmueller | No / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | jeremyfrederick | No / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | phroge | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,728.00 | $1.73 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -159.15 | $159 | |
| 1y | aprilgarcia | No / 99.9¢ | -6.00 | $5.99 | |
| 1y | ThereIsNoSpoon | No / 99.9¢ | +1,954.12 | $1.95K | |
| 1y | Sergsky | No / 99.9¢ | +1.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | johnsonroy | No / 99.9¢ | -1.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | Blue-moon | No / 99.9¢ | +5.01 | $5 | |
| 1y | CryptoNomad010 | No / 99.9¢ | -1.99 | $1.99 | |
| 1y | johnsonroy | No / 99.9¢ | -3.02 | $3.01 | |
| 1y | hvkvridvnce | No / 99.9¢ | +3.00 | $3 | |
| 1y | CryptoNomad010 | No / 99.9¢ | -3.00 | $3 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1.94 | $0 | |
| 1y | CipherThunderboltBluff | No / 99.9¢ | +1.94 | $1.94 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1.44 | $0 | |
| 1y | EchoBrimstoneQuasar | No / 99.9¢ | +1.44 | $1.44 | |
| 1y | WhisperFletcherFrostbite | No / 99.9¢ | +1.82 | $1.82 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1.82 | $0 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1.00 | $0 | |
| 1y | sporrt | No / 99.9¢ | +1.00 | $1 |
1–25
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 78%$212Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.7Kvolume
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 70%$334Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
No 52%$34.1Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
No 92%$1.39Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?
No 94%$2.86Kvolume