
Volume
$328K
Txns
3,879
Traders
736
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$1,969
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | tiger555 | Yes / 40.0¢ | +16.67 | $6.67 | |
| 1h | 0xd297...3fdcc7 | No / 60.0¢ | +16.67 | $10 | |
| 7h | 0xc672...b8a817 | No / 58.0¢ | -7.86 | $4.56 | |
| 7h | tiger555 | Yes / 42.0¢ | -7.86 | $3.3 | |
| 7h | tiger555 | Yes / 42.0¢ | -2.38 | $1 | |
| 7h | boom13 | Yes / 42.0¢ | +2.38 | $1 | |
| 7h | tiger555 | Yes / 42.0¢ | -2.38 | $1 | |
| 7h | boom13 | Yes / 42.0¢ | +2.38 | $1 | |
| 8h | tiger555 | Yes / 42.0¢ | -2.38 | $1 | |
| 8h | boom13 | Yes / 42.0¢ | +2.38 | $1 | |
| 8h | 0xc672...b8a817 | No / 60.0¢ | +7.86 | $4.72 | |
| 8h | triumphantly | Yes / 40.0¢ | +0.64 | $0.26 | |
| 8h | tiger555 | Yes / 40.0¢ | +7.22 | $2.89 | |
| 9h | tiger555 | Yes / 42.0¢ | -2.38 | $1 | |
| 9h | boom13 | Yes / 42.0¢ | +2.38 | $1 | |
| 9h | boom13 | Yes / 42.0¢ | +2.38 | $1 | |
| 9h | tiger555 | Yes / 42.0¢ | -2.38 | $1 | |
| 9h | boom13 | Yes / 42.0¢ | +2.38 | $1 | |
| 9h | tiger555 | Yes / 42.0¢ | -2.38 | $1 | |
| 9h | tiger555 | Yes / 41.0¢ | -1.84 | $0.75 | |
| 9h | boom13 | Yes / 41.0¢ | +1.84 | $0.75 | |
| 9h | boom13 | Yes / 41.0¢ | +2.44 | $1 | |
| 9h | tiger555 | Yes / 41.0¢ | -2.44 | $1 | |
| 9h | tiger555 | Yes / 41.0¢ | -2.44 | $1 | |
| 9h | boom13 | Yes / 41.0¢ | +2.44 | $1 |
1–25
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
No 98%$22.9Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
Yes 51%$31.8Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 91%$79.3Kvolume
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
No 94%$343Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 72%$202Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
No 92%$1.05Kvolume